Since then, XRP has gone through ups and downs, including a years-long legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which began in December 2020. This process significantly slowed the development of the ecosystem: many exchanges delisted the token, and institutional investors were cautious. However, in July 2023, the court issued a partially favorable ruling for Ripple, recognizing that XRP sales on the secondary market **are not** a securities offering. This verdict became a turning point — and it was from this moment that renewed interest in the asset began.
ETF as a new growth driver
In 2024, the market received another powerful stimulus: the launch of the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. linked to XRP. Although at the time of publication such funds are still in their infancy, the mere fact of their emergence signals growing trust from regulators and institutions. Given the colossal volume of the American financial market, even a moderate influx of capital through ETFs could significantly impact the price of XRP.Lessons from the past: how ETFs changed the market
Artificial intelligence ChatGPT-5 analyzed recent precedents and highlighted compelling analogies. After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the price of BTC rose nearly 70% in two months, reaching a new historical high. A similar dynamic was observed with Ethereum: a few weeks after the launch of corresponding ETFs, its value increased by about 50%.If XRP follows this scenario — especially against the backdrop of an improved regulatory status — its growth potential could be significantly higher than current estimates.
Three scenarios from ChatGPT-5: from realistic to ambitious
The artificial intelligence model proposed three possible trajectories for development by the end of 2026:- Conservative scenario: XRP will reach $5 by early 2026 with moderate investor interest and gradual ETF implementation.
- Base forecast: by mid-2026, the price could approach $7 if the regulatory environment remains favorable and institutional demand increases.
- Optimistic scenario: with a massive influx of funds into ETFs, new approvals from regulators, and a general bullish sentiment in the market, XRP could surpass the $10 mark by the end of 2026.
What determines the realization of forecasts?
Key factors, according to the model, will be:- Regulatory clarity: further steps by the SEC and other supervisory bodies could either accelerate or slow down growth.
- Acceptance by institutions: banks and hedge funds are still cautious, but ETFs could become a "bridge" for their entry.
- Macroeconomic situation: inflation levels, Fed rates, and global liquidity directly affect risk appetite.
Current market situation: stability before a breakout?
At the time of analysis, XRP is trading around $3. Over the past day, its price has decreased by 0.5%, and over the week — by more than 4%. Despite the short-term correction, the asset shows signs of resilience: quotes remain near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which remains horizontal and serves as a support zone.At the same time, the 200-day SMA is located lower — at $2.56, indicating a sustained medium-term upward trend. Such a configuration often precedes a new impulse.
Short-term indicators: neutrality and low volatility
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has stalled at 50.5 — in the neutral zone, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This indicates a balance between buyers and sellers.The asset's volatility is only 3.38% — one of the lowest figures in recent months. Such "calm" in the market often precedes significant movements, especially if a new catalyst appears — for example, the approval of additional ETFs or a major partnership with Ripple.